Why all the wireless hype makes me ill. Part 2
Posted by William on October 13, 2011
The wireless thing seems silly given what we’ve been through with digital hype. Witness the previous buzz about “m-commerce” (mobile commerce). In November 2000, the Boston Consulting Group suggested that people would spend some US$100 billion (C$160 billion) through wireless commerce applications by 2003. This, at a time when it was said that total online transactions in 1999 totalled but US$22 million (C$35 million). Those were heady times. One Australian government official opined in 2000 that “it won’t be long before every train or bus is filled with people reading the newspaper on their phone or hand-held computer.”
On such buzz many of the early digital efforts with wireless applications were made. And yet, many of these applications failed. That shouldn’t have come as a surprise to any level-headed human. Think about it: Online shopping has been a flop, so what makes us think that people are going to want to shop through their cellphones?
Apparently the Next Big Thing is going to be wireless micropayments. Just a few weeks ago, the industry was abuzz with newly released numbers from the international market research firm Frost & Sullivan–which kept busy during the dot-com years releasing a flood of such estimates–that suggested we’ll see US$25 billion (C$40 billion) in mobile payment transactions over the “wireless Internet” by 2006. Potential applications include the ability to pay for items from vending machines, or to pay for parking meters and taxis.
So we’ve got this exciting future in front of us that will allow me to buy a can of soda pop through my cellphone. Pardon me for not dropping dead from excitement.
I’ll put this level of excitement up against the reality that since 1999, telephone companies have paid about US$250 billion (C$400 billion) worldwide buying the government licences necessary to get involved in the wireless game; in some countries, that represents a cost of about $1,000 per potential wireless subscriber. Add to this the hundreds of billions of dollars they’ve invested in hardware, infrastructure, software, marketing costs and other bits of stuff to make it all work. All to let us buy a can of soda pop–or the business equivalent–through our cellphone.
Of course, many in the digital marketing world view wireless as the ultimate in advertising. Think millions of cellphones, each with the potential to receive one-on-one targeted e-ads. Tie into it location-sensitive wireless marketing, and it’s the ultimate dream: Someone walks by a Starbucks, their cellphone rings, and a Starbucks special offer appears on the cellphone screen.
Right. I want to be a part of a wireless world in which Starbucks knows at any given moment where I am on the planet. Forgive me for thinking there are a few privacy barriers still to be crossed.
The point is this: Haven’t we been here before? As a digital marketer, you should be prepared to turn a jaded, skeptical eye towards anyone suggesting that you need to dive into wireless apps with both feet. Wireless is hype, and you need to be cautious.
You can make worldwide phone calls at so favorable and low rates; international phone cards may help out you call who you need to, what time you need to, with no problem, delay.